tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25691115375718235322024-03-14T01:15:18.660+05:30LuvKush Finservea blog by Kush Ghodasarakushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.comBlogger324125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-14505249787695556012015-09-20T21:22:00.000+05:302015-09-20T21:22:09.346+05:30Triple Bottom on SunPharma<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Sunpharma was most in talks for Ranbaxy acquistion and it was looked negatively but now its trying to turn around mood. It has announced sell of Ranbaxy's Central Nervous System (CNS) unit to Strides for almost 165 cr including employees. This should come as a relief rally on the stock but technically stock should approach 950 level which is breakout from consolidation phase and a triple bottom breakout on weekly charts as attached. Stock has always taken support around 100 Weekly avg (Pink) and this time too we are witnessing a turnaround. As markets are expected to be volatile, stock could act as a gud defensive bet. But for long term investors, i must recommend to start buying for sure. Short term tgt 950!! SL::880</span></div>
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-63689239830244844202015-09-17T22:55:00.001+05:302015-09-17T22:55:41.108+05:30Time for Nifty to be ShowStopper <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">BankNifty is already running successful show at D-Street and now its time for Nifty to be showstopper. Nifty was a bit volatile in last 200 points rally from 7600-7800 but now we could see some strong short covering upto 8225. Technically, as circled, index has taken strong closing support at 7670 which is 100 weekly average. On my last post on Nifty, i was waiting for this support and we have got that. Combining that with my Wave's and Indicators, it makes my view strong for a short term target of 8225. May be FED decision is what you all worried but i guess, whatever be the decision, it should be in favor of short covering as chart says it first. I feel with Bank Policy on 29th Sept, Nifty could be Showstopper amongst global markets to outperform the most in coming weeks. So my advise to hold and go long on Nifty with tgts of 8225 n Strict sl 7670 </span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-76462365037495133692015-09-14T09:00:00.000+05:302015-09-14T09:00:22.695+05:30BankNifty short covering to continue<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">BankNifty has seen worst sell-off in last 2 expirys compared to other indicies in the markets but that was obvious after it was the most outperforming for 2 years before these expires. After a free fall, now i expect a short covering the Banking Stocks and BankNifty index. Overall, you could notice in the adjoining weekly charts of Banknifty, the index has taken strong support at 100 Weekly average at 15760 which was also a gap created in last october. Now on the upside we, black monday gap could be filled up at 17850 which is coincinding with two more technical resistance level which means it is cemented resistance. Indicators too are in oversold zone and at lowest levels since 2008 which means a pull back cannot be ruled out. So overall we could be long on this index with short term target of 17800. </span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-27021741761984223552015-09-08T08:51:00.001+05:302015-09-08T08:51:34.426+05:30Markets only for "BahuBali"<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Unfortunately markets tumbled swiftly below 7600 which was my last resort for support in near term. Now its recommended for safe traders to avoid any kind of trade on Index for this week while only BAHUBALI's who has capacity to take loss can trade in such markets. One thing good about the last 100 points fall was that BankNifty and Nifty, which were having divegence, are now in line with one another. As i have attached weekly charts, you could notice in the rectangular that on first day of the week we have breached support of 100 Week average which markets were taking since a long time. BUT ofcourse we need closing below the same for the confimation which is 7680. So this Friday's close is important. Secondly Circled, support is 7130-7200 and which is expected to come but not immediately. As indicators are in highly oversold zone a pull back is due but need some momentum from domestic data front. So overall as of now i </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">RECOMMEND TO AVOID TRADING IN INDEX UNLESS WEEKLY CLOSE CONFIRMATION as it better late than Never.</b><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-87802779047803524272015-09-03T21:35:00.001+05:302015-09-03T21:35:35.575+05:30a good "Harami" friend<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Confused with the headline? How can a Harami be a good friend? Actually, Harami here is a Japanese word which means a "Pregnant Woman"and its a candlestick pattern which indicated a reversal from bottom. As circled in the chart of Nifty, it is a "Bullish Harami pattern" which now supports my view of a short covering on the index. To make this a strong reversal point, it has taken support at the Blue line which has changed its role from a resistance line to support line. Overall, global markets have given a pull back after a black monday fall but yet we have to recover the ground. FII has been selling last month but that was mere a profit booking. Overall market could now a pull back to 8150-8220 level. Short term trader should stay long with the SL of 7600 which is the previous low and support line level. May be one more sharp correction is due but that would be after we achieve 8220 so long term investors should stay on some cash for shopping later. Currently Nifty is a buy with tgts 8150 and SL 7600</span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-40030846990900135982015-08-27T23:03:00.002+05:302015-08-27T23:03:16.898+05:30Relief Rally gets a kick-off: Nifty: 7948<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Expiry was better of in volatility than all expected after the first three sessions of this week. Nifty, after mondays fall, continued its sell off on Tuesday and Wednesday as Brokers raised Hair cut on margin stocks to 70% which forced traders to square off its leverage Derivative positions. But on Thursday we say sustained rally and fresh buying in undervalued stocks such as Tata Steel, Tata Motors , Sun Pharma to name few from the Nifty's 50 Basket. Internationally, China and US are playing a blame game. China blames US Fed's rate hike fear for global sell off while US blames Yuan devaluation and slow chinese growth for sell-off. But the technical truth is , charts were already overbought around the world. We have seen a rally on MoM charts for almost two years and now its a turn for some correction. Almost all global indicies had breached 200 day average this week and saw a steep fall of almost 5-7% which has to be followed by a pull back. Indicators on daily charts are suggesting a pull back as they are highly oversold. Talking about Nifty, as i mentioned in my last post of probable rally, it has kicked off! As circled in the chart, the circled zone is cluster of many technical resistances. 1) 100 Day average:8350 2)61.8% Retracement: 8277 and 3)Gap: 8225. So as i mentioned in my last post traders could be long with targets anywhere between 8225-8350. Achieveing targets doesnt means to short but we have to wait than for a strong reversal as resistance on upside is 200 Day avg 8451. So as of now i recommend to stay long. </span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-61260860313815199022015-08-25T21:45:00.001+05:302015-08-25T21:45:33.858+05:30Nifty 7880 (+71): A relief rally<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Am sure today many of them would have lost atleast some or part of the wealth though market ended in +ve territory. Since i entered the financial markets had never witnessed such a wide range of volatility on Nifty. But technically, Nifty took support exactly at the 100 Weekly average (dotted line in graph) at around 7670 which was crucial one. This support hadnt been breached on EOD basis since 14-9-2012 which makes this time for markets where dangerous. But as you all guys could see a gap which is relevant due its presence on weekly chart, we now could forward to fill up the gap which coincide with my wave calculation for relief rally. Indicators too on weekly charts are expecting a recovery momentum but this could be only the expiry play after which we could again see a free fall on the index. Medium term outlook has weaken so playing long would be a bit volatile play. For the short term we could surely be on the long side with the upside capped in the range of 8225-8300. </span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-51491573492401893812015-08-25T09:11:00.000+05:302015-08-25T09:11:04.556+05:30Opening: Nifty: 7895 (+86)Still in ICU<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">We saw some biggest fall in terms of points yesterday due to global trends. It is Known as Black Monday for the traders. Today we are witnessing some pull back which would resist around 8300 and i expect short covering by expiry. Though overall medium term outlook is still bearish and we could see 7470-7500 levels in next expiry. Each opportunity on the upside should be considered as a Selling opportunity for traders while long term investors can invest 25% stock specific at this level. Intraday traders stay away today too. Nifty R-7970,8180 S-7880,7790 </span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-90252960596181891912015-08-24T09:11:00.000+05:302015-08-24T09:11:06.541+05:30Opening: Traders are gonna take a blood Bath: Nifty 8055 (-244)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">If you are heart patient, i would recommend not to call up your broker atleast for today. We are witnessing a gap down opening near to psychological support of 8000 and i expect it should hold this expiry i.e., this week. On the derivative side 7900 as strong support for this August expiry and we expect a bounce back to 8300 levels. Global market indexes too has breached 200 day average support which is a sign that we are entering a medium term correction mode. Overall we dont have much on domestic news front but we are reacting to global sell-off and we have also entered correction mode. I would recommend not take ANY news position today. Just WAIT n WATCH. Nifty R-8220,8285 S-8030,7980 </span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-89185761020111016892015-08-23T21:19:00.002+05:302015-08-23T21:19:46.330+05:30Downsizing channel on BankNifty<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">BankNifty had been the outperformer in the last rally since 2011 but now it seems it would be an equal partner for underperformer in the coming future. Overall sentiments in the markets have turned bearish after the sell of on Friday. Even the global markets had seen sell off on late Friday giving a sign of weak opening tomorrow. If we look at the long term chart of BankNifty, than we had seen a rally from 9940 to almost 21500 which hasnt corrected yet enough to move further and my analysis suggest correct has begun. But as we have more traders so i had to watch the chart closes from Daily period. As we could notice in the chart, index was trading in the downside channel and it has almost breached on Friday. As we expect a gap down tomorrow, this channel is also breached and we could see downsizing channels on BankNifty daily chart which support my weaknening markets. 18346 is the 100 day average which has crossed 200 day average at 18542 for bearish crossover giving a selling idea for the medium. The crossover has been confirmed as the index is trading below the crossover and both the moving averages. As the expiry week kicks off tomorrow, i am expecting a short covering this week but use this as a opportunity to square of your longs and short new trades for next expiry. Stop loss would come at 18850 which is the resistance line of the channel. GST bill and Rate cut are the only trigger which could give some chance of reversal but it has very nuch thin chance to cross 18800 in near future. So overall the index seems to be weak in medium term. Sell rise is what i recommend </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp4YVNKaw00IeC9AA-z8hw7j_w5roUYPMNehTgoXIWGXf2pZY7XsE1mTaH26OxQI5iCVWtCygeJeH6zg0y0IeFn-2dNMQFjbzZWk1ly08KGJic-_UEsq2TXvo79v83tY9QFPw-H46KXfNB/s1600/Nifty_23_aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp4YVNKaw00IeC9AA-z8hw7j_w5roUYPMNehTgoXIWGXf2pZY7XsE1mTaH26OxQI5iCVWtCygeJeH6zg0y0IeFn-2dNMQFjbzZWk1ly08KGJic-_UEsq2TXvo79v83tY9QFPw-H46KXfNB/s320/Nifty_23_aug.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-80404242464841730692015-08-21T17:28:00.000+05:302015-08-21T17:28:10.282+05:30Closing: Long Wait failed: Nifty 8299 (-72)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;">Morning wasnt good enough as we saw a gap down opening due to global factors. All the frontline stocks had opened almost -2% down but the few good one recovered. Leading the recovery was the most promising defensive sectors Pharma and IT. Those sectors always protect long traders in such situations. Infosys and TechM managed to close in green while TCS lost gains in the end. Sun Pharma and Auropharam managed to stay positive. On the later part of the day we did see some recover post 8300 but that was just a short covering. Though we have closed with the a Doji and chances are of a strong reversal on Monday but this would be a minor wave uptrend. Could we touch 8860? Yes queit possible but still the chances of 7600 cant be ruled out than. So as of now, we can expect a short covering due to expiry week but how long we sustain can be unfold only after Mondays Move. Be Cautious on Monday! </span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-40115311178742434272015-08-21T09:11:00.002+05:302015-08-21T09:11:45.311+05:30Opening: Screaming Traders: Nifty 8305 (-67)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Greece prime minister resigning and weak PMI Chinese numbers have given our asian peers a red mark on D-Street. Nifty too is opening with the mark which would leave our traders with a Scream and shock. Overall Indian markets are not concerned with that global news but rather domestic concerns like GSTBIll/LandBill/Weaknening rupee/Monsoon deficit. So of the four two later ones are not in our hands while former two can be resolved and i guess it wont be done untill winter session. Technically, markets are expected to give a strong profit bookin with upside capped at 8650 while downside gates open to 7600. Nifty is no trade zone for intraday. AVOID INTRADAY for today. Nifty R-8425,8445 S-8310,8276</span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-23752122765391502992015-08-20T17:39:00.000+05:302015-08-20T17:39:27.050+05:30Closing: Burning Money: Nifty:8372 (-122)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Am sure many of them have burned their pockets and profit today but i had been recommending to hedge positions since a bit long. Nifty has been near crucial level of 8350 below which 7600 gates opened. Banks and specially Mid-cap PSU banks were the most beaten. Overall markets seems to be gettting weak from inside which means bad days are ahead. CNX Pharam and CNX FMCG stocks were positive which clearly says that they are gonna be defensive bet. Nifty has closed below 100 Day avg which is at 8390 giving a threat to long traders. I would suggest to avoid any further longs and keep strict sl at 8350 for longs.</span><br />
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kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-6020982303532717942015-06-06T08:49:00.001+05:302015-06-06T08:49:26.316+05:30IS INTEREST RATE POSSIBLE GOING FORWARD<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 113%; text-align: justify;">
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monetary policy meet on 02<sup>nd</sup>
June, 2015 has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% from 7.50%.
Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 6.25% and
the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate was cut by 25 basis points to 8.25%
as against 8.50%, while Cash Reserve Ration and Statuary Liquidity Ratio kept
status quo at 4% and 21.5% respectively. The interest rate cut to spur growth
and revive investment but the central bank has remained cautioned that
Inflation is expected to rise to 6 per cent by January 2016 and they also cut
their GDP target to 7.6% from earlier 7.8% for FY 16. A possible
push back of U S interest rate hike by FED, still makes indicators of recovery
and low investment and credit growth has led RBI to cut interest rates by
0.25bps. But going ahead we are expecting monsoon to remain normal, clearing of
GST bill in Rajya Sabha during the monsoon session, possible clearing of Land
Acquisition bill, further with the process of clearing of stuck infrastructure
projects is going on and likely pick up in corporate earnings going ahead. We
expect a further 25 bps rate cut or a CRR cut during the year.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-8184135138053750322015-06-03T13:33:00.001+05:302015-06-03T13:33:54.699+05:30INDIA'S MARKET CAP-TO-GDP RATIO<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.0pt; margin-bottom: 22.5pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
Nifty had a
non-stop rally from 6000 to 9000 over the last year on the promises of getting
rid of policy paralysis, passing of key reforms and bringing back the India’s
growth on the track given by the pro-growth government at the centre due to the
strong mandate given by the people of India. After the non-stop rally over the
last 12 months, the question arise in the mind of investor whether the Indian
market cheap or not.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.0pt; margin-bottom: 22.5pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
One of the key indicators considered by Warren
Buffett is Mcap to GDP ratio. A ratio used to determine whether an overall
market is undervalued or overvalued. The result of this calculation is the
percentage of GDP that represents stock market value is as follows a ratio <
50 represent that market is significantly undervalued; Ratio between 50%-75%
mostly Undervalued, Ratio between 75%-90% fairly valued and Ratio above 90% is
overvalued. <o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.0pt; margin-bottom: 22.5pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
India’s current
Market cap to GDP stands at 87% which is at the highest level in last five
years. India’s current Market cap to GDP ratio at 87% shows that the market is
Fairly Valued. We believe that short term investors should remain cautious and
for the long term investors it is good time for SIP. <o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-6202654037395198812014-10-21T22:19:00.001+05:302014-10-21T22:19:51.728+05:30Nifty levels for 21/10/2014<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
"Sharp U-Turn on the Index" Checkout for Nifty levels at <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.chartechnician">https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.chartechnician</a></div>
kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-90158417514054119712014-08-01T13:36:00.003+05:302014-08-01T13:36:42.560+05:30IS INDIA GOING THROUGH STAGFLATION?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Stagflation refers to environment
of both high unemployment and increasing inflation or a condition of slow
economic growth with a rise in prices and low demand. Now the question arise
that <b>“IS INDIA IS GOING THROUGH
STAGFALTION”</b>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
If we can see the data India’s
GDP growth which has come down from its peak of 11.4 in 2010 to 4.6 in 2014 and
the inflation rate of India in 2012-2014 was in between 11.4% to 8.4% which
is on the higher side compared previous years. So going by the above data we
believe that India is going through stagflation.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The key reasons for stagflation
is Lower GDP, High Inflation, High fiscal deficit, High CAD, High Unemployment,
Low capex etc. We believe that if there
is stagflation one should increase investment related to commodities in
anticipation of higher commodity prices.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
But we are more confident that
India would come out of Stagflation on the back of positive election results
and also positive macroeconomic data like Increase in IIP numbers and higher HSBC
Manufacturing PMI at 53 almost 17 month high. So we believe that one should buy
nifty on every dip.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-25931835644904319942014-08-01T11:25:00.001+05:302014-08-01T11:25:35.704+05:30CLOUDS WOULD DRIVE IT SECTOR AT HEIGHTS:-<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Clouds can be classified as
public, private or hybrid. Cloud computing is about renting processor power and
data storage capacity from infrastructure–as–a– service providers such as
Amazon. This means the whole services and information data of a company is
stored at one place and from where we can take information stored in any device
connected to it whenever we need it with the help of cloud.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Cloud computing has been around
for a quite some time, and goes as far as the birth of e mail. With the help of
this cloud computing software the companies have started renting servers and
storage instead of purchasing hardware and running at huge costs. And with more
organizations – especially those that rely on India’s outsourcing
infrastructure – transferring some of their IT work onto the cloud and this has
helped companies to facilitate that shift and have positioned themselves as
enablers between owners and renters. It was published in a survey on IT sector
that in India alone the market for cloud based services will rise by a third to
$557 million this year, and more than triple by 2018.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Infosys has been actively growing
its cloud based services business, using its cloud-based services business,
using its Cloud Ecosystem Hub. This could well be the heart of its future. In
its June quarter results, Infosys announced that its cloud and big data
business has executed more than 260 engagements, and has won 20 contracts in
the last quarter itself. <o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
With the use of cloud, the companies
can conduct their operations at an ease and can provide services also at low
cost through internet. This will help the IT sector to boom at its best and
develop with a friction of time. Hence, we are bullish on IT sector companies –
Infosys, HCL Info system, and Infinite Computer Solutions. <o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-41853092606071414042014-07-25T15:16:00.001+05:302014-07-25T15:16:09.609+05:30FUEL SECTOR TO DRIVE MARKETS:-<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The Oil and Gas sector is very
important part among all the sectors. The Oil and Gas sector has to be
developed in order to meet the demands. Government to focus on improving direct
transfer of subsidy to poor sections thereby reduce the overall subsidy burden
and there will be a ray of light of development in the poor sections and this
will boost the whole sector as well. The
government will also increase the share of natural gas in the domestic energy
consumption and therefore it will develop the current gas pipeline capacity of
15000kms. In FY 15, subsidy allocation is of Rs. 634 bn with last year’s carry
forward of Rs. 350 bn.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The Government will take measures
to promote the coal bed methane (CBM) and use of modern technology in order to
revive and develop the old closed files which will help the sector to boom as
the government is taking measures to open up the blocks. The Government will
also promote the usage of Piped Natural Gas and rapidly scale it up on a
mission basis. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Currently, the Oil and Gas sector
is trading at a PE of 13x compared to CNX NIFTY which is trading at around PE
of 21x. So, currently the Oil and Gas sector is undervalued compared to Nifty.
Hence we are positive on this sector. We are bullish on Reliance Industries on
the back of likely increasing the gas prices by the government and ONGC on the
back of de-regulated diesel prices by the government.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-89165568051293364012014-07-25T12:41:00.002+05:302014-07-25T12:41:44.350+05:30IS INDIAN MADE MEDICINE IS ADVISABLE?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
Indian pharmaceutical
industry has been witnessing significant growth over past few years. But the
quality of medicine is still a problem. We have heard that US FDA have banned
from exporting the Indian version of drugs from some of the facilities of
Wockhardt Ltd ,Sun Pharma Ltd and Ranbaxy Ltd. It means that they cannot sold
drugs from that facilities to US, But even with the ban they continues to sell
its products in India. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b>Central
Drugs Standard Control Organisation </b>(CDSCO) is
the Indian Organisation which is in charge of quality control of drugs
manufactured in India. It has same power and responsibility as USFDA (Food and
Drugs Association). The main reason for the flaw on drug safety is that CDSCO is
short of staff with only 1500 inspectors for over 10,000 manufacturing plant.
It means even if each of these inspectors visited one plant every day of the
year, a manufacturing plant wouldn’t receive a visit more than once in over 6
years.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
The other
key difference between FDA and CDSCO is that quality check under FDA is much
more detailed compares to under CDSCO for eg. The clocks on all computers in a
facility should show the same time. CDSCO carried out its own tests on Ranbaxy’s
medicines but found no quality issues, But during the FDA’s inspection of
Ranbaxy’s Toansa plant, inspectors by observing the time stamps, were able to
tell that test results for the same batch were being rewritten.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
The problem
with the Indian investigator is not able put the kind of efforts it required
compared to FDA investigator because Indian investigator is probably a good
friend of the plant employee or he would get a call from politician to go easy
on the inspection.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
Despite
the ban by USFDA of some these plants, CDSCO has argued that Indian drugs are
largely safe. Now it is for us we have to decide that IS INDIAN MADE MEDICINE IS ADVISABLE?<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-52749530625811275252014-07-21T09:21:00.001+05:302014-07-21T09:21:09.260+05:30BUDGET POSITIVE FOR CEMENT SECTOR GROWTH:-<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cement sector is one of the core industries which plays a
pivotal role in the growth and development of a nation. One of the world’s
largest and fastest growing cement industries, the Indian cement industry has
been expanding significantly on back of rising infrastructure activities,
increasing demand from housing sector, and construction recovery. There is a
scenario which will likely lead to increasing demand of cement. The government
is positive on infrastructure through development of Smart cities and industrial
corridor development including new ports which will give boost to the cement
industry. The focus of the government is on rural housing and irrigation
schemes, general housing (housing for all by 2022 and additional tax exemption
on Housing Interest payment raised from Rs.1,50,000- 2,00,000).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Recently, the Indian cement industry has witnessed
significant consolidation. Any steps taken by the government to push
infrastructure spending and give impetus to real estate projects will have a
positive impact on demand of cement. Therefore meaningful recovery in cement
demand is expected to take place from 2015-16 onwards. Our fair value estimate
is based on the assumption of an eventual return to more normal conditions as
the business cycle improves, and as the Indian government steps up
infrastructure spending.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-39648128407099600822014-07-20T21:31:00.000+05:302014-07-20T21:31:24.439+05:30#214 Nifty Update: Some rains on the charts<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXOD_VVx6mrPZxU4q7IY_eyGzg2-RmjaDBFRlXSej32H4i6KfWPanJz9X5qHYK5GIhcJSQQg2RPJSUxg-KA6a-v5IkAJT7EM9jM5BMsp9acG4mVuzvgmmd_rLQO2mFmD-eCXNMUEs_E8R5/s1600/20_july_nifty.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXOD_VVx6mrPZxU4q7IY_eyGzg2-RmjaDBFRlXSej32H4i6KfWPanJz9X5qHYK5GIhcJSQQg2RPJSUxg-KA6a-v5IkAJT7EM9jM5BMsp9acG4mVuzvgmmd_rLQO2mFmD-eCXNMUEs_E8R5/s1600/20_july_nifty.png" height="164" width="320" /></a></div>
Deficit monsoon has been a matter of worry for investor but some relief has been seen in the last week in some parts of India. On nifty too we saw some rain of relief for the bulls in the last few sessions. On the 14th July i did post our strategy which <b><u><i>was going long above 7625</i></u></b> and we have seen a weekly close above that same level giving a confirmation for the power in hands of bulls. Nifty has closed above all the short term moving averages on Daily charts. On the weekly charts we had got a weak closing last week with Nifty closing below 5 Weekly SMA but that proved to be false as Nifty has closed back above that average. Indicators on Daily are signaling buy on the index but weekly indicators are still flat. As you could notice in the adjoining daily chart of Index, Nifty has turned around from the strong support line which had been a resistance line in the move before. It turned around with a "morning star" candlestick pattern. Fundamentally, its quarterly result season and its the first result for this financial year and for the Modi led government. Infosys has given flat results as per expectations but other 2 big giants Reliance and TCS has beaten street estimates. As per reports reliance has seen highest ever FII investment in the stock of almost 20%. This is the good sign of bulls to be in power for longer term. On the economy front, we have seen some highest IIP numbers of 4.7% which is a positive sign for the turnaround. Technically the Nifty is still in a long term bull trend<br />
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<b><i><u>Our strategy: We recommend to HOLD long initiated at 7625 as per our last post. Tgts on upside are 7850/8031 sl:7456</u></i></b></div>
kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-27769810631305656612014-07-18T11:49:00.000+05:302014-07-18T11:49:06.176+05:30SPECIALTY CHEMICALS TO DRIVE THE GROWTH STORY OF INDIAN CHEMICAL SECTOR<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Having
survived the stormy market conditions over the last few years, the Indian
chemical industry is now poised for next big wave of growth. The industry is at
the verge of rapid growth, with the Government of India (GoI) providing an
atmosphere of care and support. Indian Chemical industry is worth of $ 108.4
billion is the 6<sup>th</sup> largest in the world and the 3<sup>rd</sup>
largest in Asia, after China and Japan. The chemical sector accounts for about
14% in overall index of industrial production (IIP) and adds around 11% in
national exports. The industry is on a high growth trajectory. In the base case
scenario, with current initiatives of industry & government, the Indian
chemical industry could grow at 11% p.a. to reach size of $224 billion by 2017.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Indian
chemical industry substantially contributes to the economy; however the slow
economic growth in 2013 has impacted the demand for chemicals. Nevertheless,
the industry which is witnessing considerably slow is betting big on specialty chemicals
that are expected to show considerable growth. Specialty chemicals include
adhesives, additives, antioxidants, and biocides, corrosion inhibitors, cutting
fluids, dyes, lubricants and pigments. Specialty and knowledge chemicals which
form about 35-40% of the total chemicals industry, has been witnessing a double
digit growth over the years due to increasing penetration and growth from a
lower base. The specialty chemicals sector is characterized by requirements for
high-value products, high-volume requirements with expanding customer base, a
product-driven market, and addition of new participants at various levels of
the value chain. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Moreover,
Indian specialty chemical manufacturers have a strong presence in the export
market, too. Active pharmaceutical ingredients and colorants, including dyes
and pigments, are some of the key products exported. India exports specialty
chemicals to Asia-Pacific countries and also to Europe and US. With a potential
to grow to $70-$100 billion by 2020 from the present $23 billion, the specialty
chemicals market has plotted a strong growth at 14 per cent per annum over the
last five years and is expected to be the key driver for India's chemical
sector's growth story. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-76116831141927949792014-07-14T07:42:00.000+05:302014-07-14T07:42:00.593+05:30#213 Nifty Update: Dark Cloud cover at the wrong place<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy-brO3graPCB490PPa2KieGgcL2unLnPsKfndcoztH-TGpaECF2knltBJKRwQlWeHKm11q5FXiX7uo4ZuV2zdx68k_yhWAlz47k1WI4MWA8WRsXmrfSwWcBOJABy3K_u_54jHldyftCbF/s1600/11_July_nifty.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy-brO3graPCB490PPa2KieGgcL2unLnPsKfndcoztH-TGpaECF2knltBJKRwQlWeHKm11q5FXiX7uo4ZuV2zdx68k_yhWAlz47k1WI4MWA8WRsXmrfSwWcBOJABy3K_u_54jHldyftCbF/s1600/11_July_nifty.png" height="164" width="320" /></a></div>
Its already a late July and still no sign of heavy rains anywhere in India. Dark cloud cover has arrived but on Nifty and not on the cities. Nifty has dragged almost 400 points from the high last week. Railway Budget and General Budget were the two big events last week. Both were delivered in the faith of long term growth but still common man takes it hard to digest a expensive growth. IIP which was announced after the market hours on Friday which came at almost 18 months high at 4.7%. All the major events now have been declared and now markets will work on sentiments and Quarterly results. Technically market is gonna be crucial for this 15 days now. Daily chart has already weakened and we expect a 50-80 points pull back while weekly chart has also gone in the court of bears. But Monthly charts been still positive we have some hopes. 7300 is strong support on the monthly chart but if thats broken you could see some deep correction of 10%. Nifty could take support at 50 Day SMA at 7386. <u style="font-weight: bold;">On our last Post we mentioned to Hold long and our 1st tgt 7688 had been achieved</u> after which trailing SL of 7538 had hit down.<br />
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<b><i><u>Our strategy: Wait and Watch. Short below 7300 and Go long above 7625</u></i></b></div>
kushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04112240509179169341noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569111537571823532.post-90289637476540758382014-07-12T12:38:00.001+05:302014-07-12T12:38:19.650+05:30A ROADWAY TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT IN TEXTILE SECTOR:-<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-IN">With the
announcement of the BUDGET on 10<sup>th</sup> July, 2014 Mr. Arun Jaitley has
taken a great step keeping in mind the various sectorial problems and has made
arrangements accordingly in order to give them a boost.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN">This is a boost
to the textile sector, the Budget has announced “duty-free” entitlement for
import of trimmings (all types of decorative laces), embellishments (different
types of work used in dresses and sarees) and other specified items to 5% of
the value of exports from the current 3%, which will help to increase the
exports and is a good boost to industry.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN">The government
has fixed $ 50 billion textile export target for the current year. Nearly 40%
of this is readymade garments. The move will also help Indian manufacturers to
compete with other countries in getting more orders from global souring
entities, such as Wal-Mart. This move will help to bring down the cost of
readymade garments meant for export by 2-3%. The government also removed basic
custom duty on specified inputs for manufacture of spandex yarn, from 5%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN">Export
opportunities could also be opened with the announcement of 6 mega textile
clusters at Bareilly, Lucknow, Surat, Kutch, Bhagalpur, Mysore and one in
Tamilnadu, the budget provides Rs. 600 Cr for this. The minister has
allocated Rs. 50 Cr for a trade facilitation centre and crafts museum to
promote handlooms and to set up a Hastkala Academy for preservation, revival
and documentation of the handloom and handicraft sector, in a public-private
partnership with the allocation of Rs. 30 Cr.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-IN">Hence, the
measures have been taken to develop the textile sector, and hence the textile
companies will see a boost in the coming years. So, we are positive on Himatsingka
Seide Ltd. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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