Why we are Bullish On Equities!!!

"GOLD", when this word is heard anywhere around india, the speaker gets attention of all the ears around him. Gold is consider to be one of the preferred investment of savings in India. Gold Jewellery is highest consumed in India. Whenever i ask my elders what to of the savings, they would reply "Buy Gold". I am sure many of my friends and colleagues would be facing that. Arent we creating some bubble in gold?? On the charts i was bearish and i am bearish on Gold since it hit 34000+ in last January and i did even post it on this blog. Second thing to gold is "Real Estate". Last ten years inflation in India was majorily due to real estate prices. People became rich unexpectedly faster due to doubling and tripling of Land price in even less than a year of buying the property. A survey by a renowned agency said that saving in financial market droped from 8% from 2008 to just 2% in 2013 of total saving i.e., rest of saving is in either gold and Real estate. Buhh!!! arent we smelling a bubble in real estate??? It my view that when more than 80% of public is bullish in any asset of investment than we can expect a big move in prices on either side. Since we have seen a continuous upside in real estate segment, we can be bias on downside of the prices. On other side Gold is treated as a just a mere investment option in US. I just came across of the article of Ex. member of FED Mr. Randall S Kroszner who stated to our indian Journalist that they wont give more weightage to Gold at this level as their economy is recovering but yet not inflating. Gold is just the hedge against inflation for them. So we can make out that Gold demand in global market will decline so is the case India. On other side Equity has very less portion of ones saving in India, which gives huge opportunities on upside in the Equity. Technically, Gold has strong resistance at 28000/30350 where current rally could hault. Therefore, looking at inter asset analysis, Equity is the underperformer and  we are bullish on it for LONG TERM 

#6 Gold Update: "Old is Gold"

Trading gold or to say investing gold had been the oldest idea and its back for short term. Equity has been showing sign of weakness in near term which was the first sign that made me look at gold chart. And surprisingly it is supporting the inverse rule with Nifty or to say equity in that manner. Attached graph is weekly chart of Gold and we could notice that 50 Weekly Average has crossed 100 to trigger a short call but indicators are suggesting a small pull back on gold which could be upto 29470-30400. This pull back will be pure technical and we expect it to be a fast one. Short term traders can sure trade long but for safe traders we recommend to go short on the resistance levels as menitoned above. As i have circled area on the chart it is to show you how gold is reversing around at 28280 in this marked period. Since last three weeks it has taken support there and bounced back. Daily chart has also shown some sign of pull back. But on other side 30460 is strong resistance on Monthly chart which would be breached.

Our Strategy: We recommend to go long with sl of 28300 tgts 29470/30400

Note:* We might have recommended this strategy to our client and we dont have any personal position

#195 Nifty update: "Double Toppings on Nifty"

We all get excited when we get double toppings on Icecream or Pizza but i guess after todays close bulls wont be happy with the ''Double topping of Bearish Engulfing pattern on Nifty's Weekly chart". On other side Bears would be happy of the toppings. Now time will say who can digest this double topping..Bears or Bulls...Volumes on Nifty had dried up as Americans where on Christmas and New year celebration holiday. Yesterday we saw a basket selling and people had two reasons in mind 1) Rumors that Manmohan Singh would resign today (but he didnt) 2) People in Europe and America were booking profit after High NAV recorded on Financial Book Closure on 31st dec. Whichever reason you choose technical had indicated on 13th Dec Weekly closing and we did post on Blog to be short. Bond Purchase has decreased by $10 Billion/month which could also squeeze out  some liquidity gradually from market over some time. High Inflation is persisting in India which could trigger a rate hike in next RBI policy. On other hand Auto Sales have decreased for major companies in Dec which may be due to Inauspicious days as per Hindu belief. IIP are still pitched at lower levels which is not cheering for our economy. Earning season is about to commence and we expect intact growth and not much of flourished profits as our rupee had been stable around 62 which wouldnt have bought much profits for IT and Pharma sector which are dependent on foreign income. So we expect some profit bookings by short term traders on Nifty but we cant measure the extent of profit booking on downside i.e., it could be deep or even consolidation. Only good thing going around in Indian economy is FDI reforms. FDI in railway could be a surprise for markets and good for Indian railways. Parliament even approved some of the investment such as TESCO and vodafone 100% hike in Indian unit. Linking some inter market analysis, Gold chart is showing some bullishness which is a sign of downside in equity though not directly correlated in short term but it could trigger some bearishness on stocks. Coming to technicals, if we consider a bull wave to end at 6415, than we can see some extreme downside as we mentioned on last nifty update post. But for short term we have again got a chance to Sell nifty with some stop loss. Nifty is taking strong support at 50 SMA at 6193 on daily chart. RSI has turned negative. So now it seems Daily chart is also supporting negative biasness seen at weekly chart since 13th dec.

Long Term Traders Strategy: We are intact with Short call initiated on last post with tgt of 5970/5750 and SL 6415

Short term Traders straegy: We recommend to go Short (CMP 6211) tgts 6072/5970/5895 SL: 6360


*Note all levels on nifty are Cash levels and trade at ur risk with careful study. We might have recommended this strategy to our clients and we dont have any personal position. My analysis is biased to technical analysis.

#5 Gold Update: Target 25000 achived on Gold!!! Still more downside upto 22500

On 29th January and Again on 3rd April i did posted that we are surely showing some more downside on gold and we achieved my 2cd tgt 25000 on GOld..My third tgt was around 21500 which is active now. I feel gold could further go down to 19300/16300 but 22500 is strong support and we could see a break to sliding of precious metal. So our strategy on Gold could be shorting gold on each rise with sl of 27200 with target of 22500. 

#4 Gold Update: Gold is completly drunk...

Before two days I posted for a party as my 28400 on gold has been achieved...and I guess gold is still havin hangover of tht party and still slipping.  My 2cd tgt 27100 has been achieved and currently trading below 26000. Cyprus has sold gold with a big chunk which is the major reason but technical had already given sell call at 30000. Now italy and Slovenia could do the same coming weaks which could help to achieve my nxt 2 tgts 25000 n 21000..so its still party hanging for my followers.  cheers!!!!

#3 Gold Update: Gold traders ..Thumps up to my followers! !

As I have been intimating short on gold since jan ,my 1st tgt 28400 has been achieved today. People around the world are shifting from hard assets to paper assets as their stock markets have been at life time high and economy picture in US has improved.  In India we stilm have governance problem so both the bullion n paper markets is  seeing a set back. But technical suggest a support for nifty at 5400 after infy gave a set back to traders. I did mention in my post that 5400 was strong support for nifty while gold was going to slide down..now technically nxt tgt ia 27100 and than 25000/21000