#200 Nifty Update: Counter attack at the Border

A tough war at the Border Line of Nifty between Bulls and Bears!!! Last two session has brought some important pattern of Candlestick out which is known as "Bullish Counter Attack" as circled which is that a bears Close and Second Bull candle Close are the same level which has happened on Nifty and Sensex Today. And interesting all this action is taking place at 200 DMA which is at 6000 so we can say that War is at Borderline and Bulls have came back with a force at the right tym. But will they able to enter back the borderline and overcome bears??? Fingerscrossed!!!! This spill on Index was largerly due to global factors such bond defaulter or you can say weak earnings at the DowJones Index. But for us what matters is 6000 mark which is a Psychology level and also a strong level of 200DMA. We did mention to go long on our last post But sl which was at 5998 has been broken on intraday level and not on closing basis. We have been mentioning to keep SL on Closing basis but anyways still you havnt missed the bus as its standing jst near to where you left.

Our recommendation: We recommend to Hold longs or stay on long side with revised tgts of  6060/6131/62114/6263 revised sl:5960 

#196 Nifty Update: TICKET CONFIRMED

Bears have got a confirmed ticket to 5700-5900 which they booked last week wtih "Bearish Engulfing" travellers co. As you all could see "Rectangle" marked on top which suggest a perfect Bearish engulfing which is even confirmed with a lower low candle last week. As i said now bears have confirmed ticket but there is always 1% chance that bears wont travel i.e., there is always a chance of other side on markets. Infosys came up with better than estimate results and also a good guidance but it couldnt hold Nifty on higher levels. IIP shrank to 2.1% in November with 6th consecutive fall. So one thing is clear that our industrial economy hasnt picked up as markets expected and we may see some disappointing results this season. Technically, indiactors have turned weak on weekly chart joining bears to downfall. Since last 4 trading session nifty has been trading below 50 SMA which is at 6193. It has been acting as strong closing resistance level for the index. Long term investors start arranging cash to buy equity soon in coming months

Our Strategy: We are intact with our tgts and Short call as per our last NIFTY update.

#194 Nifty Update: "Dark Cloud" covers Market and 430/688 points rain expected

Rain in winter is unusual but for the markets this COULD happen, so now carry a RAINCOAT i.e., put option to protect you portfolio for new 2-3 months. Last five session has been continuous downside and that was like a slow poison to traders as slide was a bit everyday. Looking at 'Weekly chart" after today's close i was shocked to see a strong negative candlestick pattern "Dark Cloud" cover. This pattern suggest a reversal to bullish trend and this time its more relevant as its at a "Clear top". Indian Economy hasnt improved as expected or as market has discounted. Yesterday IIP were worst than expected at -1.8% while inflation was at the peak at 11.42% (approx). RBI is expected to hike rate in upcoming monetary policy while FED is expected to start tapering of Bond buying which will squeeze some liquidity from the markets. One more reason to see some profit booking around the world and India is the financial year end for US which makes FII liquidate their investment to adjust Balance Sheet. But one good thing for me is that a new high was in December than rather November because History says if a new high is in november than we see a downside for a long term but this was not case for us this year. Earning results would be announced next month and i am expected a little hazzy profits as auto industry hasnt seen sales as expected in diwali festive. Now coming back to technicals, Weekly chart has surely given a negative candlestick pattern while indicators are also bending negative. Nifty took strong support at 5 Week EMA which is also a strong support was next week. On daily chart we may see some short covering as we have seen 5 straight down side. On monthly chart nifty is trading below the resistance line. For bulls in power this expiry should close above 6288. From the elliot wave point, this was end of Wave 1 from 4624-6415. Now we expect correction of 430 points minimum to maximum 688 points if nifty trade nxt week below 6145-6152.

Our Strategy: SHORT Blindly below 6152-6145 and Sale on Raise with SL of 6450.. Downside targets for next few months 5950/5750/5470

#2 BankNifty Update: Be ready for a take-off to 12300

BankNifty seems to be ahead of Nifty of signalling a buy call. Bank Nifty has technically taken a strong support of 61.8% of the previous rally and bounced back yesterday to a runway for flight towards 12300 in near term. But still indicators are not ready for take off and we need some confirmation from their side. On other hand index is hovering around once a resistance line which could act as a support line further. Short term moving averages are clustered around 10000 level. Currently we are biased towards upperside for the index.

Our Strategy: We recommend risk takers to go long  with sl of 9580 while SAFE Traders are recommended to go long ABOVE 10032 with tgts of 10600/11200/12300 SL:9815