#213 Nifty Update: Dark Cloud cover at the wrong place

Its already a late July and still no sign of heavy rains anywhere in India. Dark cloud cover has arrived but on Nifty and not on the cities. Nifty has dragged almost 400 points from the high last week. Railway Budget and General Budget were the two big events last week. Both were delivered in the faith of long term growth but still common man takes it hard to digest a expensive growth. IIP which was announced after the market hours on Friday which came at almost 18 months high at 4.7%. All the major events now have been declared and now markets will work on sentiments and Quarterly results. Technically market is gonna be crucial for this 15 days now. Daily chart has already weakened and we expect a 50-80 points pull back while weekly chart has also gone in the court of bears. But Monthly charts been still positive we have some hopes. 7300 is strong support on the monthly chart but if thats broken you could see some deep correction of 10%. Nifty could take support at 50 Day SMA at 7386. On our last Post we mentioned to Hold long and our 1st tgt 7688 had been achieved after which trailing SL of 7538 had hit down.

Our strategy: Wait and Watch. Short below 7300 and Go long above 7625

#208 Nifty Update: Strong Modi Wave making it Difficult for "Bears" to stand out

Hail Modi and Hail Modi Wave on Nifty Index. In my lost post i tried to take on Bulls for some time but we couldnt stand against the strong storm from the west of Modi Wave. Me being a gujju surely want Modi to take seat at the centre but more than me it seems Nifty is wanting that result. Last time i took a closer from Daily chart and i cut my finger but this time i wont make that mistake as now i jumped to Weekly and Monthly chart directly to take a boarder view. Fundamentally, earnings have been better than expected for Non-IT stocks while IT stocks have not performed as per expectations due to stronger rupee. This is the perfect trait of a bull run start when IT and FMCG post weaker earnings compared to other sectors. Overall all the companies our performing better than last quarter. SunPharma buying stake in Ranbaxy and Lafarage and Holcim mergers were the most talked and looked last quarter. Though later deal is yet not finalised but important for India as Ambuja and ACC are part of Holcim. Many Midcap and penny stock are the best pockets to park your money currently. My picks are Leela, Sintex, and Suzlon as of now though they are high risk stock. US on other side is improving on their economy as suggested by data and stock market is at all time high. Coming back to Indian technicals, as you all can notice on the weekly chart of Nifty that index has just crossed a strong resistance line this week which was connecting the previous two highs of last year. This is the strong trait for analyst like me. On other line it is travelling between the strong steep upside channel making us bias towards Bulls. It has been taking strong support at 5 Weekly EMA.  Weekly indicators are approaching OverBought Zone but yet still havent confirmed it. Looking at monthly chart we getting a bigger picture on nifty which suggest a strong up move still from here. So now i am surely avoiding any short term trading call on index and rather go long and sit tight for a month or so. 6736 is strong support for this week and 6497 for coming weeks.

Our recommendation: We recommend to Go long and HOLD with tgts of 7200/7480 with SL of 6500 on closing weekly basis

*Note: All the words mentioned in my post are just correlated to nifty and please take position on my recommendation after through study and consulting your advisor. Trade at your risk

#181 Nifty Update: Rewind or Forward after a Pause button??

Everyday you all come across "Rewind, Forward and Pause" button but since two days Nifty has pressed pause button on its level around 6200. What next?? A"Doji and spinning body" as circled in graph suggest a pause to a current trend and it could retrace or move forward (Rewind or forward) depending on the momentum of global platforms across. Nifty is still in the trading channel as we mentioned yesterday suggesting some bullishness for sure. But NIFTY today exactly resisted near to my 1st tgt 6220 as mentioned yesterday. Intraday movement suggested some weakness ahead so we did initiate a safe player strategy on out FB page during market hours i.e., "Going Long on a Midcap stock and shorting nifty with SL of 6235 (Cash levels). Risk takers are holding long for sure on my nest two tgts 6280/6310. We would recommend to keep Trailing SL at 6167 on downside and 6235 on upper side.  Though long term trend is positive with SL of 6050. Tomorrows CLOSE is a crucial of the movie ahead.