Sunday, September 20, 2015

Triple Bottom on SunPharma

Sunpharma was most in talks for Ranbaxy acquistion and it was looked negatively but now its trying to turn around mood. It has announced sell of Ranbaxy's Central Nervous System (CNS) unit to Strides for almost 165 cr including employees. This should come as a relief rally on the stock but technically stock should approach 950 level which is breakout from consolidation phase and a triple bottom breakout on weekly charts as attached. Stock has always taken support around 100 Weekly avg (Pink) and this time too we are witnessing a turnaround. As markets are expected to be volatile, stock could act as a gud defensive bet. But for long term investors, i must recommend to start buying for sure. Short term tgt 950!! SL::880

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Thursday, September 17, 2015

Time for Nifty to be ShowStopper

BankNifty is already running successful show at D-Street and now its time for Nifty to be showstopper. Nifty was a bit volatile in last 200 points rally from 7600-7800 but now we could see some strong short covering upto 8225. Technically, as circled, index has taken strong closing support at 7670 which is 100 weekly average. On my last post on Nifty, i was waiting for this support and we have got that. Combining that with my Wave's and Indicators, it makes my view strong for a short term target of 8225. May be FED decision is what you all worried but i guess, whatever be the decision, it should be in favor of short covering as chart says it first. I feel with Bank Policy on 29th Sept, Nifty could be Showstopper amongst global markets to outperform the most in coming weeks. So my advise to hold and go long on Nifty with tgts of 8225 n Strict sl 7670 

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Monday, September 14, 2015

BankNifty short covering to continue

BankNifty has seen worst sell-off in last 2 expirys compared to other indicies in the markets but that was obvious after it was the most outperforming for 2 years before these expires. After a free fall, now i expect a short covering the Banking Stocks and BankNifty index. Overall, you could notice in the adjoining weekly charts of Banknifty, the index has taken strong support at 100 Weekly average at 15760 which was also a gap created in last october. Now on the upside we, black monday gap could be filled up at 17850 which is coincinding with two more technical resistance level which means it is cemented resistance. Indicators too are in oversold zone and at lowest levels since 2008 which means a pull back cannot be ruled out. So overall we could be long on this index with short term target of 17800. 

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Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Markets only for "BahuBali"

Unfortunately markets tumbled swiftly below 7600 which was my last resort for support in near term. Now its recommended for safe traders to avoid any kind of trade on Index for this week while only BAHUBALI's who has capacity to take loss can trade in such markets. One thing good about the last 100 points fall was that BankNifty and Nifty, which were having divegence, are now in line with one another. As i have attached weekly charts, you could notice in the rectangular that on first day of the week we have breached support of 100 Week average which markets were taking since a long time. BUT ofcourse we need closing below the same for the confimation which is 7680. So this Friday's close is important. Secondly Circled, support is 7130-7200 and which is expected to come but not immediately. As indicators are in highly oversold zone a pull back is due but need some momentum from domestic data front. So overall as of now i RECOMMEND TO AVOID TRADING IN INDEX UNLESS WEEKLY CLOSE CONFIRMATION as it better late than Never.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

a good "Harami" friend

Confused with the headline? How can a Harami be a good friend? Actually, Harami here is a Japanese word which means a "Pregnant Woman"and its a candlestick pattern which indicated a reversal from bottom. As circled in the chart of Nifty, it is a "Bullish Harami pattern" which now supports my view of a short covering on the index. To make this a strong reversal point, it has taken support at the Blue line which has changed its role from a resistance line to support line. Overall, global markets have given a pull back after a black monday fall but yet we have to recover the ground. FII has been selling last month but that was mere a profit booking. Overall market could now a pull back to 8150-8220 level. Short term trader should stay long with the SL of 7600 which is the previous low and support line level. May be one more sharp correction is due but that would be after we achieve 8220 so long term investors should stay on some cash for shopping later. Currently Nifty is a buy with tgts 8150 and SL 7600

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Thursday, August 27, 2015

Relief Rally gets a kick-off: Nifty: 7948

Expiry was better of in volatility than all expected after the first three sessions of this week. Nifty, after mondays fall, continued its sell off on Tuesday and Wednesday as Brokers raised Hair cut on margin stocks to 70% which forced traders to square off its leverage Derivative positions. But on Thursday we say sustained rally and fresh buying in undervalued stocks such as Tata Steel, Tata Motors , Sun Pharma to name few from the Nifty's 50 Basket. Internationally, China and US are playing a blame game. China blames US Fed's rate hike fear for global sell off while US blames Yuan devaluation and slow chinese growth for sell-off. But the technical truth is , charts were already overbought around the world. We have seen a rally on MoM charts for almost two years and now its a turn for some correction. Almost all global indicies had breached 200 day average this week and saw a steep fall of almost 5-7% which has to be followed by a pull back. Indicators on daily charts are suggesting a pull back as they are highly oversold. Talking about Nifty, as i mentioned in my last post of probable rally, it has kicked off! As circled in the chart, the circled zone is cluster of many technical resistances. 1) 100 Day average:8350 2)61.8% Retracement: 8277 and 3)Gap: 8225. So as i mentioned in my last post traders could be long with targets anywhere between 8225-8350. Achieveing targets doesnt means to short but we have to wait than for a strong reversal as resistance on upside is 200 Day avg  8451. So as of now i recommend to stay long. 
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Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Nifty 7880 (+71): A relief rally

Am sure today many of them would have lost atleast some or part of the wealth though market ended in +ve territory. Since i entered the financial markets had never witnessed such a wide range of volatility on Nifty. But technically, Nifty took support exactly at the 100 Weekly average (dotted line in graph) at around 7670 which was crucial one. This support hadnt been breached on EOD basis since 14-9-2012 which makes this time for markets where dangerous. But as you all guys could see a gap which is relevant due its presence on weekly chart, we now could forward to fill up the gap which coincide with my wave calculation for relief rally. Indicators too on weekly charts are expecting a recovery momentum but this could be only the expiry play after which we could again see a free fall on the index. Medium term outlook has weaken so playing long would be a bit volatile play. For the short term we could surely be on the long side with the upside capped in the range of 8225-8300. 
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