Wednesday, August 3, 2011

#64 Nifty Update

:o :o...Shocked or cant believe??? that was the expression of many investors when they switched on TV while they were brushing because they saw SGX NIFTY trading 80 points down below 5400 at 8am. NIFTY opened at 5402 at pre-open on weak global cues and close at 5404.80 down 51 points from previous close. US debt ceiling bill was signed by Obama yesterday but he mentioned that " i am signing the bill but am unhappy with deal" and fear that US debt market might be downgraded on Rating made investor bearish and saw US markets down by 2%. Ripple effect of last night session came on Asian markets too. We might see further downfall in foreign market as said by many analyst but they are underweight on Indian markets. They expect that Emerging markets such as Indian and China too be attractive and will see fresh buying before the Developed markets. Many queries were spurting at me regarding investment in NBFC's and Banking stock but i suggest to wait. At presently banking stock are facing NPA problems. NPA has risen by 5 times on YoY basis as per a report in a newspaper while advances has declined in almost all sector except petroleum and housing loans. So earnings of Banks will be hurt this quarter but on the other side monsoon is expected to be fairly good all over the world and its expected that commodities price is to ease which will ease inflation which will results to end of monetary tightening by RBI. So i would suggest to avoid fresh buying in Financial Sector..rather go for COAL INDIA , ITC , TITAN , ONGC or SUNPHARMA in present situation. Technically speaking market has created a new gap down around 5435 on opening and again has shown indecisiveness between bulls and bears with creation of  "DOJI" today. MACD and RSI has given a clear sell signal but stochastic shows some upward move. A "top rounding" pattern has been seen in NIFTY which will be completed at 5240 levels. I suggests selling NIFTY on rise with tgts 5340/5280/5240/5200 sl 5586
.NIFTY levels for 4th August:-
R-5418             S-5380
R-5435             S-5356
R-5472             S-5320
R-5516             S-5280

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