Monday, September 26, 2011

#100 Nifty Update

·       NIFTY had opened at crucial level of 4875 and then we saw a low of 4758. People would have been in panic but I had sensed a reversal as there was a negative divergence on the hourly chart. NIFTY closed at 4835 just 32 points down.
·       PIPAVAV-MDL deal at Halt:- After the written complaint by many private shipyard owners such as LT and ABGShipyard , ministry has kept the JV at Halt. This complains were regarding transparency of the bidding process. This JV could lead to Rs.1 lakh crore  order which is the reason ministry is going carefully ahead.
o Technically stock has seen a continues down side from the day this complains had been lodged. Volumes have been decreasing and many Doji’s are witnessed on the chart which clearly suggests indecisiveness between bulls and bears due to this uncertainty of JV. So avoid the stock until clearance of JV. If the JV is in favor of PIPAVAV then surely have this stock in portfolio.
·       Banking sector:
o Technically Speaking banking sector seems to recover soon as have seen high volumes today on the market recovery in the last. I would like to suggest you to go for HDFC Bank, ICICI , SBIN and Axisbank for short term as these will be stocks to lead the market.
·       Reliance KG Basin: Reliance has been in news since its dispute with the ministry regarding the cost at KG-6 basin. Stock has been beaten hardly and it is expected the reliance may be sued for wrongly posting the higher cost. It has not been able to achieve the target of extraction from the basin which it had promised 2 years back. So stock seems to be volatile.
o Technically stock had given the double top breakout at 800 with downside tgt of 840 which has been achieved today. I expect stock to consolidate at current levels between 750-800 until the clearance of its issue of KG-6. So avoid this stocl.
·      Greece has been the concern and it still remains the concern but we have seen a sharp recovery in many markets as EU said that if not Bailout then they surely will come out with some strategies to save Greece. This statement got markets boomed on Friday and continued today. Most of the Greece banks holding government papers have been downgraded by a notch but still every1 hopes that EU will find a way-out. We should keep our fingers crossed.
·      IMF on 24 sept told that they are ready to help Greece and other Europe countries to fight this crisis. This one statement has given the global market hope of some recovery and we expect DJIA to open positive tonight. Futures of DJIA are trading way above expectations after the biggest weekly erase last week since 2008.
·       NIFTY has confirmed the double top breakout but still one more close below 4900 has to be given. Bulls and bears are indecisive since last 2 days and viewing the global market we expect and short term recovery. Technically NIFTY is very dangerous so don’t go short but risk taker may be long on NIFTY for a week with strict SL.

NIFTY levels for 27th September:-            
R-4885                 S-4818
R-4911                  S-4785
R-4965                  S-4760
R-4995                  S-4720

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