Tuesday, May 15, 2012

#122 Nifty Update: Is 8950 possible on NIFTY?

Looking at this chart, all the technical analyst including me will get bullish on the NIFTY. This chart is NIFTY's monthly chart. As we could notice technically we are witnessing a "Flag" pattern which is a continuation pattern. This Flag is on the way during bull run so we can expect a bull run ahead. Breakout was 4 months in FEB as u could notice. Since than market has taken support of the resistance line of flag. This pull back to support line is a common thing after a breakout from a pattern so we can still consider this as a valid breakout. The question remains whats the next strategy?? NIFTY should close above 4900 this month to be in the bull run. Risk takers can short below 4900 while safe traders and long term traders can wait for this month confirmation. If the market closes above 4900 for the may month than we can get upside long term target of 8950 as per the breakout out formula.

To add support to MONTHLY chart we have even seen a bullish reversal sign today on the daily chart which is "Bullish Engulfing". This candles stick pattern has often given a great reversal signal. So risk takers can be bullish on the market while safe traders can wait for month end. Fundamentally rupee is getting weaker and weaker. And the cause?? We the people. Air India is on strike, Kingfisher cancelling flights and Jet Airways discontinuing foreign routes which is increasing demands for foreign carriers which results in demand of dollars in exchange of rupees depreciating our own currency. We should understand and pilots should closeout this strike as soon as possible. On the other hand indian banks are being downgraded by foreign rating agency which is also a shocking news. On other hand ,Market leader, RIL is not performing as per expectation on the basin. Output is decreasing day-by day.. So all strong technical reasons are counterattacked by Fundamental reasons. So i would suggest safe traders to wait for the month end while risk takers go short below 4860 or go long above 5170

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