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Saturday, April 13, 2013

#1 Bank Nifty Update: Bank on Banking Stocks!


My title might seem funny for traders as thy will feel that  "Pagal hai kya, jo banking sector leno ko bol raha hai". Remember guys that same feelings were for the people who advised IT stocks before 2000. Since 2000-2010 we saw a IT boom and i am sure many retail long term investor wouldnt have made most of it. Now i feel that 2010-2020 would be for banking in particular to India and Asian Countries. WHY?? What i feel and most of you will agree is that today we have Mobile connection and Internet connection in most the rural parts of India but ask yourself a question that do we have a Banks at all those places??. Majority answer is NO. As India is booming, use of more plastic money and cheque payment has increase as our rupee has depreciated and transactions are such large at a time that its difficult rather risky to transfer cash so bank is required in such situation. Take it a land deal to a business deal, everyone requires a bank account. Even rural farming loans are disbursed through cheques by governmnent but problem is that we dont have presence of bank branches. So farmers are not availing farming subsides unless they have a bank account. Since last 5 years bank accounting opening is on high growth which could ultimately result in good balance sheet of the banks. This was fundamental view and now talking about technicials. Technically Banknifty as you all can notice on the chart, should take support around 10440 in worse case scenario. On upper side we could see 13300/14770/21000 in coming years. My focus would be on private sector banks as they are growing their presence rapidly than pubilc sector. My top picks are HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK and Yes Bank. For small cap concentrate on DENABANK. So my strategy would be going long on banknifty with every dip up to 10440 with sl of 9900 for long term investors.

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