Nifty is about to reach the peak with all energized
investors. Last issue I mentioned that nifty was resting before touching a peak
and that’s what happening currently on the chart. October is always consider to
be a eventful month as we have quarterly earnings report and this month is
considered to be a turnaround time in the history of equity markets. Though not
always but yes for India this was slightly the same i.e., turning point for our
investors. Economy of India is still in a dicey stage where inflation is at a
rising stage and Industrial Production numbers aren’t still a cheering stage
where it should be. But the FMCG and service sector companies have started
showing improvement on fundamental grounds which is a sign of start of new long
term Bull Run in coming years. Though we cannot rely only on that ground but
combining other factors we can be bias towards a bull run. IT and Pharma sector
has given a good results too with financial sector. Lagging sectors like
commodity and Infra has yet not beaten street estimates which is a perfect sign
of a bull run cycle as these sectors are always last to give a run.
Government had taken some interesting steps during October
month. First, they cleared bill for Jet-Etihad Deal. Secondly, FIPB cleared
cleared some deals worth Rs,.1213 crore recently. Thirdly, RBI governor has
taken some calculated risk to control money flow by adjusting MSF twice this
month. Fourthly, controlled import of Gold has driven Current Account Deficit
(CAD) of the country down which is a good sign. On the other side US had a dead
lock for almost 10 days for passing the budget. At last on 17th Oct
they passed the budget with a statement saying that a tapering would still be
delayed upto mid 2014. This was cheering for the currency’s outside US and even
to Indian Rupee. Looking at the technical of USDINR I had initiated short for
long term on our blog on 17th Oct and we still recommend to short
over the view of 7-8 months.
Above is the USD/INR weekly chart and we could see that after
a high we have seen a sharp downfall. It’s time for some short recovering on
the weekly charts but indicators and wave patterns suggest some more downside
in a long time scale. On daily chart 50 EMA is at 63.20 which could act as a
strong resistance in near term. But now we could see some consolidation. Our
recommendation on USD/INR is to short on every rise to 63.20 with downside tgts
at 57.40/54.70 Sl:64
Coming to investors rocket (nifty) technical chart, we were
bullish since last month issue at 5833 and we are intact with the view. Our 1st tgt 6212 on nifty has
been achieved comfortably this October which I mentioned last month. Nifty has been taking strong support at 5
Weekly average. Indicators are still positive on all time scales but daily
chart suggest that a pause is about to arrive pretty soon after a new life time
high. We are in the 5th Wave of a larger 1st degree on
the monthly chart and we could see this end rally anywhere between 6220-6500.
Nifty just broke a small downside narrow channel today signaling a strong move
ahead. We are bullish on Nifty as the Banknifty and Midcap index are in strong
bullrun as per the charts. BankNifty has taken a strong support at 10600 and
now we could see a move to close around 12300.
Our recommendation on Nifty: Hold longs on Nifty initiated
last month at 5833 and book profits on next two tgts 6370 and 6500 with
trailing SL at 6040 and 6200 on achievement of 6370
Follow us on our blog http://chartechnician.blogspot.com and our fb
page www.facebook.com/mavjihari or twitter
@chartechnician
Note: All the data and graph is as of 29th
October 2013 closing
Disclaimer: I may have personal
position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above
may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical
analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my
idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email. Some words mentioned in
article don’t mean their actual meaning. They are correlated for market.
No comments:
Post a Comment