Nifty levels for 21/10/2014

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#214 Nifty Update: Some rains on the charts

Deficit monsoon has been a matter of worry for investor but some relief has been seen in the last week in some parts of India. On nifty too we saw some rain of relief for the bulls in the last few sessions. On the 14th July i did post our strategy which was going long above 7625  and we have seen a weekly close above that same level giving a confirmation for the power in hands of bulls. Nifty has closed above all the short term moving averages on Daily charts. On the weekly charts we had got a weak closing last week with Nifty closing below 5 Weekly SMA but that proved to be false as Nifty has closed back above that average. Indicators on Daily are signaling buy on the index but weekly indicators are still flat. As you could notice in the adjoining daily chart of Index, Nifty has turned around from the strong support line which had been a resistance line in the move before. It turned around with a "morning star" candlestick pattern. Fundamentally, its quarterly result season and its the first result for this financial year and for the Modi led government. Infosys has given flat results as per expectations but other 2 big giants Reliance and TCS has beaten street estimates. As per reports reliance has seen highest ever FII investment in the stock of almost 20%. This is the good sign of bulls to be in power for longer term. On the economy front, we have seen some highest IIP numbers of 4.7% which is a positive sign for the turnaround. Technically the Nifty is still in a long term bull trend

Our strategy: We recommend to HOLD long initiated at 7625 as per our last post. Tgts on upside are 7850/8031 sl:7456

#212 Nifty update: Sky is the Limit

Heat Wave and Modi Wave are the 2 unstoppable waves currently prevailing in the climate. No one would have dreamt that Nifty could reach this high in such a short period. Such a vigorous rally has two implications 1) Still more upside is left or 2) this is a false rally and we may see sharp correction. I am support the first view and SKY IS THE LIMIT for this bull run. Looking at the economy data yet it hasnt recovered so well that it get digest such a move in markets but its just the expectation of the world that New govt will make India a better place and the work has already begun. Many infra and mining bills are cleared on the fast track and also Power sector is seeing some huge reforms. Two laggards in the markets since last few years were Power sector and Mining which has recently outperformed other sectors of the markets. We have Trade Balance number at 12 today during the market hours and that could be important for the markets. In my last post we did mention a range bound movement but we recommended to go long if Nifty closes above 7488 which happened last week. Our First target than 7688 almost has been achieved  which now makes us hold nifty with the tgt of 8031 on the upside. Technically indicators have turned positive for now on daily charts while weekly and monthly continue to be suggesting a strong bull run. As we all can notice in the chart, nifty is resisting near to the line which is 7715 level. Once we break the resistance line on the upside than we could see a sharp move ahead to 8031. 5 day EMA has been acting as strong closing support which is at 7568 as of now.

Our recommendation: Hold the longs which has triggered at 7488 with the next tgt of 8031. Keep a trailing closing Stop loss at 7568.

*Disclaimer: all the view are based on technical analysis and are personal. Please rely on our recommendation after thorough study and at your on risk.

#211 Nifty Update: Waiting list for traders at 7150 to 7500

Dream rally its nearing to its end. Modi has sworn in as Prime minster so has been profit sworn into portfolios of investors. Now its time to start liquidating 20-30% portfolio and wait back for interesting levels on the downside to buy back the portfolio. Today Modi team was announced officially and they have started working on the first day. Last rally from 5933 was in expectation of Modi winning the battle and as event has been completed i feel it is even discounted in the rally. Now its time to book some profit. Since the rally from 6820, Nifty has not breached 5 Day Exponential till yesterday, but now it was breached twice. That is the sign of weakness.!!!! Indicators on the daily chart have turned bearish and i have noticed a wedge like formation on the top which could be breached  tomorrow on the downside. Even 5 EMA is around the same level as downside trendline of wedge at 7309 which is hammering the level in trade. On the other side marked Horizontal line at 7257 has acted as a strong pivot point around which nifty has toggled in last few sessions. Last two sessions low has been around the same level creating a strong base to trigger sell on breach of it. We even have a gap downside which could be filled up at 6871. Weekly charts are somewhat indecisive to take either side while MoM we are seeing a strong upside. Though daily chart showing some weakness we would wait and watch for strong levels of 7150-7500 to be breached to trade on respective side.

Our recommendation: We recommend to book profit on all longs which we initiated around 6800. We would recommend risky traders to short positional below 7257 or buy above 7488 whichever is first. While safe traders are recommended to short below 7150 and go long above 7500. On the dowside we have targes of 6870 and 6500  and on the upside 7680/8031 Consider closing of Nifty to act upon the levels  mentioned

*disclaimer: Trade on my idea at your risk and after due diligence. Refer to disclaimer page on website www.chartechnician.com for more. All the words used are just related to article and doesnt intend to hurt anyone personally.